Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

The company has gained notoriety in recent months over wagers placed on the Middle East conflict, including on the timing of US-Israel strikes against Iran, and on a US-Iran ceasefire, some of which appeared to bear signs of insider trading.

During this time the US company has experienced a massive increase in volume, with more than $1bn a week now traded on its platform. Polymarket takes a commission on some of these trades, with a varying fee structure depending on the kind of bet. It states that geopolitical and world events markets are “fee-free”.

The latest fundraising round could lead to the business being valued at about $15bn, an increase of two-thirds on the previous valuation, according to the tech news site The Information.

Polymarket’s value has been increasing rapidly, having achieved a $1bn price tag in June last year after Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200m round, followed months later by the owner of the New York stock exchange pledging $1bn at a valuation of $9bn. The NYSE’s owner, Intercontinental Exchange, has since invested a further $600m in Polymarket.

It has said that it will become a “global distributor” of Polymarket’s data, using bets on the platform to provide “sentiment analysis” to investors who may use it to inform their strategies.

Datafeeds from Polymarket and other online prediction markets have increasingly been shaping trades, including in oil markets.

Polymarket’s investors include a venture capital company owned by Donald Trump Jr. The company allows users to in effect bet on the outcome of events by buying and selling shares in a future outcome such as “will TikTok be banned in the US this year?”

However, numerous bets placed by anonymous accounts on the platform have given rise to speculation that people are taking advantage of insider information to make money. The Israeli authorities earlier this year arrested several people and charged two on suspicion of using classified information to make Polymarket bets.

A Guardian investigation found that thousands of people in online communities on Discord are strategising on how to make money from conflict – by betting on Ukraine’s frontlines, laying arbitrage wagers on geopolitical events, and, at times, copying the bets of what appear to be insider wallets.

This investigation found that Polymarket gamblers appeared willing to pressure independent institutions – such as in the media and thinktanks – to change their reporting in order to allow these gamblers to win bets. Polymarket gamblers recently threatened an Israeli journalist, demanding he change his article so that they could collect on a bet over whether Iran had struck Israel on a specific date.

However, Polymarket does not just host bets on conflict: other wagers include the second coming of Jesus Christ, the date of the potential departure of the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, and the outcomes of elections around the world.

Polymarket rose in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election. At the time, the well-known US pollster Nate Silver joined the platform’s advisory board, saying that prediction markets – which offer users an opportunity to bet on an outcome – may be a superior way to forecast events, as they monetarily incentivise correct guesses in a way that polling does not.

However, while Polymarket’s supporters say that it offers a “truth signal”, experts caution that it may cause distortion in larger markets. A thin slice of users may be able to manipulate larger financial markets by placing strategic bets, skewing the odds of certain events, with effects rippling out to the companies and institutions that are placing more and more stock in the platform’s forecasts.

Polymarket has been approached for comment.