In just over a week, Quebec will have a new premier — likely Christine Fréchette, set to become only the second woman in the province’s history to hold this post. Former Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois won the 2012 general election with a minority government that lasted around 18 months.
With François Legault’s announcement that he will step down, the 20,000 or so party members of his Coalition Avenir Québec will be anointing their new leader — and in the process, our 33rd premier — next weekend.
Fréchette and her leadership rival, Bernard Drainville, had two lively and somewhat acrimonious debates. Last weekend in Laval, they crossed swords on four main themes: health care; education; security, housing and homelessness; and immigration and identity.
On the one hand, it was a substantive debate of ideas and proposals on important issues. On the other, it’s hard to take seriously what they say needs fixing in Quebec after eight years of CAQ government in which both held key ministerial portfolios.
Furthermore, most of the media outtakes from the campaign and debates have been dominated by personal shots between the two — with Fréchette calling out Drainville’s ego over his position on Quebec City’s “third-link” tunnel project, and Drainville portraying Fréchette as indecisive and wishy-washy on immigration and defending the French language.
The hill to climb is already steep for the CAQ, with a Léger poll this week putting the Legault-led party in last place, tied with Québec solidaire with only nine per cent support. In a second poll, however, that number climbs to 16 per cent with Fréchette as leader. She is a strong candidate, and as acting premier for a few months, her gravitas would likely enhance heading into the October election.
The second poll shows a Fréchette-led CAQ eating into the support of Charles Milliard’s Liberals, who had been tied with the PQ and steadily increasing its vote among the critical francophone electorate (up to 23 per cent.) Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives, which had been in third place, also suffers a noticeable drop with Fréchette on the scene.
During the campaign, the PQ will undoubtedly relish quoting Drainville’s characterizations of Fréchette as soft on identity issues. Will this intuitively compel her into striking a more aggressive nationalist stance — thus potentially moving moderate francophone federalist voters back to the Liberals or Conservatives?
Milliard’s path to victory is more complicated now with Fréchette’s arrival and Duhaime’s party securing a seat in the National Assembly thanks to a former CAQ MNA who has decided to join the Conservatives. The Liberals still trail the PQ among francophone voters by about 20 percentage points. With a crowded dance floor, how will Milliard narrow that margin?
Hopefully he won’t fall into the trap of also playing the nationalist card, but instead position himself as the voice of reason focused on bread-and-butter issues — in contrast to the reckless adventure of a divisive referendum on independence that PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is promising at the worst possible time.
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A native of Lévis, Milliard should be able to make a strong play in the Quebec City region where Duhaime is strongest. His regional economic development initiatives must also take centre stage. And it’s time to start trotting out some prominent francophone candidates and promoting a team — contrary to Duhaime and PSPP, who are seen as one-man shows. The Liberals’ recent gains open the possibility for quality recruits.
After next weekend, all the party leaders will be in place with less than six months before the election. Will our presumptive new premier be able to purge herself of the CAQ record and make inroads? Will the bruising she took from Drainville come back to bite the party, disrupting its unity and direction?
These and many other questions, twists and turns are setting the stage for an intensely critical period in Quebec politics.
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