Russia’s war on Ukraine began four years before the U.S.-Israel war on Iran did, but the battle lines are getting blurrier, while the conflicts threaten to draw in more participants.
The stakes are further elevated as President Donald Trump deploys thousands of U.S. troops to the Middle East for an anticipated ground assault meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“Over the last week, there have been a couple of interesting developments that effectively merged the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran war into a single conflict,” University of Pittsburgh political science professor William Spaniel said on his YouTube channel this weekend.
He pointed to Ukraine signing a security agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide the kingdom with expertise Kyiv has developed in defending against Iranian-designed drones supplied to Russia.
In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also made unannounced visits to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to reach similar agreements. That’s as the Persian Gulf states have been bombarded by Iranian missiles and drones, which are overwhelming their U.S. air-defense systems.
Spaniel, who studies war, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism, also cited reports that Russia is now providing Tehran with upgraded versions of Iran’s own Shahed drones. That deepens Moscow’s involvement in the Iran war after Western intelligence widely flagged evidence that Russia has been providing Iran with targeting information on U.S. assets in the region.
Sources told the Associated Press that Russia’s improvements on the Shahed drone include decoys meant to divert air defenses, jet engines, cameras, advanced anti-jammers, radio links, AI computing platforms, as well as Starlink capabilities that no longer work in Ukraine.
“We are still not at a true world war as there is no one actor fighting on two fronts simultaneously like the United States during World War II,” Spaniel added. “But it is further connecting the battlefield outcomes, and it will have longer-lasting implications for how the battle lines are divided.”
Russia’s shipments to Iran prompted Israel to attack the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea, which has emerged as a major channel for deliveries of ammunition, drones and other weapons, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Israel hit warships, a port, a command center and a shipyard used to repair and maintain vessels, the report said. But Russia can still use land routes to arm Iran. Trucks carrying what Russia said was humanitarian aid went to Iran via Azerbaijan, and it’s possible they could contain drones, sources told the AP.
‘So these wars are very much interlinked’
Russian aid to Iran comes after the U.S. and NATO allies supplied Ukraine with weapons and intelligence, though reports saying U.S. and Israeli munition stockpiles may be running low have raised fears that supplies to Kyiv might be reduced.
Meanwhile, European leaders have rejected Trump’s demands that NATO take a more active role in the Iran war. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas instead pointed to the converging wars and argued that assistance on one front will help the other.
“So these wars are very much interlinked,” she told reporters this weekend. “So if America wants the war in the Middle East to stop—Iran to stop attacking them—they should also put the pressure on Russia so that they are not able to help them.”
Despite Europe’s reluctance to join the Iran war, allies are still mostly allowing the U.S. military to use European bases as staging areas for attacks on Iran.
European defense officials are also in advanced discussions to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz once the war ends, sources told the New York Times.
In addition, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has backed the Iran war and predicted the alliance would eventually come around to support it too.
“If Iran would have the nuclear capability, including, together with the missile capability, it will be a direct threat, a existential threat, to Israel, to the region, to Europe, to the stability in the world,” he told CBS News last week. “So the president doing this is crucial, and I’ve seen the polling, but I really hope the American people will be with him, because he is doing this to make the whole world safer.”
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
