Around the time they were dropping the puck in Raleigh on Sunday evening, I posted this on Bluesky: “This is not the team you think it is. Two brilliant young goalies instead of (Samuel) Montembeault. (Phillip) Danault for veteran depth up the middle. (Ivan) Demidov getting comfortable. Forget the first half of the season. This is now. … They’re healthy. Look out.”
And with that, the Canadiens played 15 minutes of the most dreadful hockey you’re going to see. The quick, talented Hurricanes kept them bottled up in their own zone. Never mind getting a rush going, they couldn’t even get the puck.
There was a reason for that. Martin St. Louis’s young team wrapped up an almost perfect game in Nashville shortly before 10 p.m. in the east, hopped a flight to Carolina, arrived late a time zone away and were facing one of the league’s best teams only hours later.
No wonder they left their legs at checked baggage.
By my eyeball analytics (which are about as trustworthy as a baby’s bottom) expected goals in the first period would have had the ‘Canes up 16-0. But when the Canadiens went to the room trailing only 1-0, you already knew: the Hurricanes, not the Habs, were in deep trouble.
This is where the Canadiens stand as of March 30, 2026: When they’re behind against a good team on the road, you don’t simply think they’re going to win, you know they will.
In the first period, Jakub Dobes did what he does with increasing confidence as the season wears on — keep his teammates in it until they find their missing legs.
In the second period, captain Nick Suzuki took over. It started with a stretch pass from the wizard Lane Hutson to the dangerous Cole Caufield. Caufield draws attention the way honey draws flies. He found Suzuki, Suzuki found the net. Captain 1, Hurricanes 1.
Then it was Suzuki setting up Caufield for his 46th of the season and then Suzuki himself scoring on his own rebound and it was 3-1 Montreal, because of course it was. Then (as Eric Engels pointed out) it was down to Suzuki to make the Guy Carbonneau play, blocking Sebastian Aho’s shot with just under three minutes to play
The hockey blabosphere has not yet caught up with the reality, but the 2025-26 Canadiens are not simply closing in on a playoff spot with nine games to play. They’re a good team now, not a good team two or three or five years down the road.
While everyone is fixated on how the Habs are too small, too inexperienced or not sufficiently tough for the post-season, they’re winning the kind of games you have to play in April, May and even June.
Not big enough, you say? Horse patootie. Some of those big teams aren’t fast enough. If size intimidates, so does speed.
Whatever you think of this buoyant young Canadiens team, you’d best write it in pencil because you’re going to be revising it tomorrow. They are maturing almost by the hour, so whatever was true of them on that California trip no longer applies, and what is true now will be irrelevant when the regular season ends on April 14.
As of this Monday morning, St. Louis’s charges are exactly where I thought they would be on March 30, 2028. They have 42 wins (11 more than the Maple Leafs) and 94 points. Over the last 21 games, they’re 14-4-3.
Since back-to-back losses at home to the Sharks and Ducks in mid-March, they have won six out of seven games, all against teams in the playoff mix. Every night is a test, every night they pass.
What does it all mean? Moneypuck.com says the Habs now have a 98.9 per cent chance of making the playoffs, a 39.8 per cent chance of making the second round, 17.2 per cent for the third round. That, too, will change by the hour.
The key is to understand that the overall record does not match the team we see on the ice. It began with Dobes doing pretty much what Jaro Halak did in 2010 — leading them to the playoffs. The first half of the season, they had injuries and struggling goalies. The second half is about a healthy team with Dobes and fellow rookie Jacob Fowler playing like seasoned veterans.
All of this is observation, not a prediction. That comes later. There is not a team in the Eastern Conference the Canadiens can’t beat. That doesn’t mean they will, only that the potential is clearly there.
Yes, they might make the playoffs and get swept in the first round. It happens. That’s not how I see it. This is now. They’re healthy.
Look out.
Heroes: Jakub Dobes, Jaroslav Halak, Cole Caufield, Ivan Demidov, Catherine Dubois, Laura Stacey, Ann-Renée Desbiens, Tajon Buchanan, Jonathan David, Reece Howden, Mikaël Kingsbury &&&& last but not least, Nick Suzuki.
Zeros: Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Tiger Woods, Paul George, Michael Rousseau, P.K. Subban, Wayne Gretzky, the Blue Jays, Bud Selig Jr., Claude Brochu, David Samson &&&& last but not least, Jeffrey Loria.
Now and forever.
Editor’s Picks
The post Todd: Canadiens serve notice they can beat any team in the East appeared first on Montreal Gazette.
