Road to the Playoffs: The most important games this weekend

The march to the playoffs continues this weekend with several games of massive consequence — whether for a top divisional spot, the Presidents’ Trophy or just to make it to the post-season at all.

As we head into the long weekend, today’s look at the playoff races focuses on the biggest games on the docket. By the time we come out of it on Monday, we’ll have about a week-and-a-half of the regular season left and the playoff picture will look much different than it does today.

Here’s our matchup-by-matchup look at the most important games, all of which you can see on Sportsnet+.

Friday: Philadelphia 4, New York Islanders 1

The Flyers bounced back from a deflating loss to the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday with a huge win over the Islanders. There are now four teams tied at 88 points, including the Senators, who hold the tiebreaker for the second wild card spot. The Islanders, with 89 points, are far from safe in the third spot in the Metro as the Flyers and Blue Jackets can clinch through that path, too.

Saturday and Sunday: Florida at Pittsburgh

The Panthers and Penguins play two games against each other, both in Pittsburgh, this weekend. It’s interesting for a couple reasons. No. 1 is that the Penguins have an opportunity to open up even more space between them and the Metro’s third spot before they finish their season with three of their last four games on the road.

And a funny historical note on this one. Recall the 2022-23 playoff race. The Penguins were ninth in the East, but just one back of the Islanders for eighth and two back of the Panthers for seventh. Pittsburgh had two games left on its schedule, compared to one each for New York and Florida. On April 11, the Penguins were playing against Chicago, the league’s worst team, and they would wrap up their regular season two nights later against the 31st-overall Blue Jackets.

Despite being in this great position, Pittsburgh suffered a highly unlikely 5-2 loss to Chicago in that first game, which allowed Florida to clinch its playoff berth and opened the door to the first of their three consecutive trips to the Stanley Cup Final.

This season, Florida could play a part in the Penguins’ clinching scenario if it drops these two games. Of course, the stakes aren’t as high for Florida now as they were for Pittsburgh in 2023 — the Panthers organization would prefer to lose and ensure it keeps its top-10 protected draft pick.

Saturday: Boston at Tampa Bay, 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT

A solid run of play, with six wins in its past eight games, has Boston solidly in a playoff spot, still with a chance to push for the No. 3 or possibly even No. 2 seed in the Atlantic. One of the teams the Bruins are still chasing is the Lightning, whom Boston plays both this weekend and next. Tampa, meantime, is neck and neck with Buffalo and Carolina for first place in the Eastern Conference, which would bring a Round 1 playoff matchup against a wild-card team. The Lightning will have immense influence on how the Eastern playoff race plays out for their divisional foes, as six of their last seven games come against Atlantic teams all with something still to play for.

Saturday: Buffalo at Washington, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

Speaking of the top spot in the East, Buffalo is looking to regain its edge on Tampa, which is equal to the Sabres in points and regulation wins with one game in hand. Buffalo will have to do that against Washington, which may be the longest shot of the bubble teams to get into the wild card in the East, but is still in a good spot in the tiebreaker. It’s a big weekend for the Sabres and Lightning, and will set up a huge matchup between the two on Monday.

Sunday: Carolina at Ottawa, 5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT

A big win over Buffalo Thursday, buoyed by a sharp performance from Linus Ullmark, put Ottawa into a wild-card spot and sets up a busy weekend of games. On Saturday, the Sens host Minnesota in a matinee, followed by an Easter Sunday game against Carolina — a team they may line up to play against in Round 1. Goalie usage will be in focus for the Sens in this back-to-back scenario, as James Reimer put together a good month of March with a 1.71 goals-against average. The Sens start the weekend in the playoffs by way of tiebreaker over two other teams with 88 points. How will they come out of it against two high-powered teams?

Sunday: Minnesota at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT

Every game is huge for the Red Wings now and their weekend begins with a matinee in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers. That might make Sunday’s home game against the much more difficult Minnesota Wild all the more challenging. How will they use their goalies? John Gibson has started all but two of Detroit’s games since the Olympic break, including both halves of a back-to-back last weekend, getting pulled in the second one against Philadelphia. He’s perhaps beginning to show signs of fatigue with 15 goals allowed in his last five starts.

Friday: St. Louis 6, Anaheim 2

The Ducks had a game in hand on the Oilers but they squandered that in a blowout loss to the Blues on Friday, their fourth loss in a row. The Ducks and Oilers are now tied at 87 points, but since they are also tied in games played, the Oilers jump ahead by the regulation-wins tiebreaker. The Blues, meanwhile, remain on the fringe of the race with the win but have back-to-back games against the Avalanche next, which could seal their fate if they drop both.

Saturday: Toronto at Los Angeles, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

The Kings are also caught up in the West’s playoff race, but have lost six of their past eight and with only 19 regulation wins have the worst tiebreaker. Toronto, entering the day eighth-last in the league, has an interest in losing this game for two reasons: its first-round pick is top-five protected; and if the Kings make the post-season, the third-round pick Toronto got in the Scott Laughton trade will convert to a second-rounder (via Buffalo).

Saturday: Winnipeg at Columbus, 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT

From an Eastern perspective, the Blue Jackets are currently tied with Ottawa and Detroit at 88 points for the second wild card, but are on the outs because they’ve played one more game than both and have fewer regulation wins. Saturday’s opponent presents a desperate and urgent Winnipeg Jets squad, which should make for a playoff-like atmosphere. And from a Western perspective, the Jets are one of the hottest bubble teams since the Olympic break, including a big win last weekend against Colorado, but they are coming off a 3-0 loss to Dallas on Thursday. The Jets are in an OK spot with the tiebreaker, but are three points out with seven games remaining and running out of time.

Saturday: Vegas at Edmonton, 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

It’s a weighty weekend in the Pacific Division. If Edmonton can win this game, it might be able to take over top spot in the division outright; a Vegas loss could put the Golden Knights far enough back of Anaheim and Edmonton that a division title gets out of reach and makes their seat hotter in relation to the wild-card race. Or, the opposite happens, and a Golden Knights victory makes this a tight, three-way race for the Pacific.

Saturday: Nashville at San Jose, 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT

The Sharks seemed all but buried after losing six straight games in late March, but now they’ve won four in a row, all in regulation, and start the weekend in a great spot as holders of the West’s second wild-card spot with one game in hand on all the teams immediately behind them, plus a decent tiebreaker setup. The Predators, meantime, snapped a three-game regulation losing skid with a huge shootout win over Los Angeles on Thursday that pulled them ahead of the Kings by way of the tiebreaker. The winner of this game is who will be in control of the second wild card on Sunday.

Sunday: St. Louis at Colorado, 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT

If the Avs sweep their two weekend games, it would put them on the precipice of clinching the Presidents’ Trophy. As mentioned earlier, the Blues will face Colorado on Sunday and again at home two nights later, a stiff test for a team hanging on for dear life in the playoff race.